Win A Big Game, Make The Poll

Yeah, we were all surprised that Dartmouth upset Harvard. But statistically it’s also possible that I could be killed by a banana falling from the sky (bananas: don’t trust them). This is not meant to imply the Big Green victory was that improbable, but ‘hey, they beat a ranked team once’ is not actually a very useful criterion. By that metric, we might be ranking Saint Cloud State, because in terms of prediction and evaluation, it’s probably more important to focus on game two of a series than game one (coaching adjustments! intangibles!). Yet there’s the flaw in that logic when it comes to back-to-back games is resting starters, as UND did by bringing in Shaw in game two.

Now is the time to buy on Northeastern, who can certainly take me to task for jumping to very early season conclusions. But they have been a ‘beat anyone, lose to anyone’ team during the current seniors’ run. It is also time to finally take a look at UConn, whom I hope to write more about soon. The season playing out will reveal Princeton to be a more successful squad than Dartmouth, although beating Mercyhurst right now says more about the time the Lakers are going to need to develop than about their opponents. BC’s utter thrashing of Cornell sent a message, as does the offense over defense UW sweep of Bemidji (I think Horgan got me there). The USA Today poll is not yet out but they ranked UW ahead of BC last week so canny or WCHA bias: take your pick.  WCHA bias has not proved to be a bad way to select a hockey team over the past X number of seasons.